Politi
Voice
Data-Driven Electoral Analysis & Predictions
Democrats are favored to win the House (80%), and Republicans are slight favorites to keep the Senate (55%). This is a clear Democratic year: Democrats flip the House and pick up North Carolina and Ohio in the Senate, but fall one seat short in a Senate that comes down to Maine, Alaska and Kansas.
In-depth coverage of the 2026 Senate, House and Governor races. Breaking down the electoral map with precision and insight.
Latest Ratings Changes
How we rate races →Nov 1, 2026
Senate Control OddsDem 36% · Rep 59% Dem 41% · Rep 55% · Ind 4%
Final forecast. Median 50-50; our picks give Republicans a 51-49 majority.
Nov 1, 2026
Alaska SenateToss-up, Tilt D (D+0.1) Toss-up, Tilt R (R+1.3)
Peltola docked 1.5 points on polls and 1.5 on candidate rating after the NYT report on a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot.
Nov 1, 2026
Maine SenateLean R (R+3.3) Toss-up, Tilt R (R+1.3)
Moved 1.5 points toward Jackson.
Nov 1, 2026
Kansas SenateLean R (R+3.9) Toss-up, Tilt R (R+1.4)
Moved 1.5 points toward Hamilton.
Nov 1, 2026
Iowa SenateLean R (R+5.3) Lean R (R+3.2)
Moved 2 points toward Turek.
39.4% approve · 57.9% disapprove
Forecast · House vote D+7.5
Reference · RealClearPolitics generic-ballot average D+8.5
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Your trusted source for electoral analysis
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Analysis backed by polling and historical trends
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Updated as new data comes in
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Fair coverage of both parties
November 3, 2026