Alaska SenateToss-up (R+3.5) Toss-up (D+1.5)

Correction. Peltola led the Aug 18 top-four primary 48-43, leads the RCP average by 2.0, and Kalshi prices Democrats at 65%.

Georgia SenateLean D (D+2) Likely D (D+6)

Ossoff leads Collins 50-43 and has led every poll this cycle; DDHQ and Sabato both rate it Likely D.

North Carolina SenateLean D (D+2) Lean D (D+5)

Cooper leads the RCP average by 8.0 and Kalshi prices him at 92%; we shave 3 points for NC’s historical R polling miss.

Senate Control OddsGOP 54% GOP 69%

Model now simulates each race from its projected margin instead of a flat 50/50 for every toss-up. Husted (R+1), Paxton (R+1.5) and Hinson (R+4) edges now count; Democrats need four of six toss-ups.

Maine SenateToss-up (R+3) Toss-up (EVEN)

Troy Jackson leads Collins 48-46 in the latest poll and Kalshi has swung to Jackson 70-32. A true 50/50 — we remain far more cautious than the markets.